Rodney’s Ravings – A Response and Expansion

Publication, Housing Affordability, Owen McShane

Rodney Dickens, writes the “Rodney’s Ravings” newsletter, one of which was reprinted in the Mangawhai Memo of 22nd February.

Rodney is a highly competent analyst and his “Ravings” provide useful commentaries which are highly valued by those of us who consume such data on a daily basis. However, I have received several phone calls from local residents who have read more into his “Coastal Section Update” than he would have intended, and have probably not understood the context and target of the commentary. For some it has confirmed persistent rumours that Council is about to “prohibit” all future subdivision and that everyone should rush to subdivide while they still can – or take other instant actions. Council cannot make such instant changes to the Plan even if it chose to.

First, residents of Mangawhai appear to believe that the data is all about Mangawhai village whereas it actually applies to the whole of the Otamatea District, from Ruawai to the Heads. This area includes many diverse clusters and villages, with a variety of sections available, and targeted at different markets.

Rodney’s newsletter is targeted primarily at the investment community and he was sending a clear warning to speculators that the speculative boom, where one could buy a section off the drawings and turn it over for a $30,000 profit in a few months, may well be over. Which is no bad thing. Also, because so many of New Zealand’s towns and cities barely have enough lots to satisfy demand till the end of next month, an “eleven year supply” may sound grossly excessive, and that such an “oversupply” might mean that all prices are about to collapse.

More (Pdf 21 pages) . . .